Betting Blog - Bang and Pod’s bets

After the excitement of the Big Brother launch on Thursday its time to get down to the serious matter of the betting. After failing their secret task Mario, Lisa, Steph and Luke are all up for eviction, the polls have Steph as firm favourite to go and this is also shown in the odds where it is down to Steph or Mario, with Steph being the favourite.

At this early stage viewers/voters have not had chance to form views on the housemates so I think the result is still open, all it needs is a bad move from Mario and he is out of there. With this in mind I’m holding off betting too much but could not resist £250 on Steph at 1.6 on Betfair. Hopefully she remains favourite to go and I can put some more on later. 

Just rubbing my hands at a nice win for the dutch. Had a ton on them +0.25 on the Asian Handicap. Nice profit, but as with all winners on the Asian, I have regrets about not having them straight on the 1X2.

Anyway, the game has just finished. You’d think that bookies would suspend the other games in a group while the matched are going on. Looks like, Bet365, VCbet and PaddyPower have just left their markets open. I can only assume their odds setters went home. The sensible bookmaker will have suspended the market and got their odds setters to price the result of tonights game in to the France/ Holland game.

Before tonight, France were favourites, after a 3-0 win of Italy though, you’d think the Dutch would be favourites. This is whats happened on Betfair and Billy Hills. The Lazy odds setters have just left their prices up though, so you can get some good value backing Holland tonight. PaddyPower have Holland win at 3.0 whereas Bet365 have draw no bet for Holland at 1.95.

We’ve gone for Holland @1.95 at bet365. £82 Pod, £118 Bang.

Could not resist this bet.  Portugal, 1.8 £75.  I ring Pod up to see if he’s having anything and he’s put £200 on it.  Not too much thought has gone into this bet.  All I know is that Portugal have Ronaldo, Nani and some other big stars.  I can’t name a single Turkish player.  Therefore, Portugal is nailed on!!

Its on ITV so I’ll be able to watch this in the comfort of my own home.

So BB has started this year.  Good old Billy Hills has come out with some more odds for the show.

Rumours that we are in for the sauciest series of Big Brother yet have already sparked a gamble on a Big Brother Bonk, with William Hill having already accepted bets of up to £100 at odds of 6/1. Hills have cut the price to 4/1. William Hill are expecting a reality TV betting bonanza with Big Brother 9 expected to turnover in excess of £10 million.

“Big Brother is still the daddy of reality TV betting and we are sure to take millions of pounds on the outcome in the next few months,” said Hill’s spokesman Rupert Adams.
William Hill Specials
Gender of winner: 8-15 Male; 11-8 Female
Gender of contestant evicted by the first public vote: 4-7 Female; 5-4 Male
Gender of 1st entrant in to the house: 5-6 Male; 5-6 Female
4/1 BIG BROTHER BONK CAUGHT ON CAMERA DURING BB9

William Hill have installed Michael as their 7/2 favourite to win BB9, with the rank outsiders Sylvia & Alexandra at 25/1.

“The house is full of Freaks & Geeks, it is going to be a very long 93 days,” said Hill’s spokesman Rupert Adams

William Hill Big Brother First Odds: 7/2 Michael, 7/1 Darnnell 8/1 Luke, 8/1 Dale, 10/1 Mohamed, 12/1 Dennis, 12/1 Jennifer, 12/1 Rex, 12/1 Rachael, 14/1 Stephanie, 16/1 Kathreya, 20/1 Mario, 20/1 Lisa, 20/1 Rebecca, 25/1 Sylvia, 25/1 Alexandra.

Will Mario & Steph Pass The First Task? Yes 4/7, No 5/4

Betting on Big Brother is always better on betfair.  Prices are better and you can trade in and out of the market.  Here’s the link to the Big Brother winner market

England win 3-0.  Bet won.  We seem to be doing better not betting in the syndicate. 

This is a picture of the Pod at Dusk Till Dawn Poker on Thursday 29th May.  The crazy fool only went and won it.  I am suprised they let him in with the dress code.

Dress Code
Whilst we understand that our members wish to be comfortable when participating in poker events, we think it important that Dusk Till Dawn enforces a smart but casual dress code.
Members who do not dress appropriately will be refused entry on the door.

http://www.dusktilldawnpoker.com/resultplayers.php?id=222  

This was a game I was going to skip.  I got burnt on the last friendly.  I have 3 or more goals and the game ended 2-0.  England were truely shocking against the USA.  They seemed to give up at 2-0 up rather than pushing for the 3rd goal. 

So todays bet is England to win to nil @ 6/5.  I chose that because I fear the 1-0 scoreline.  Asian Handicap is evens at -1.5.  I think if Trinidad do score, it’ll be a 2-1 or a 1-1 so Asian Handicap will lose.  1-0, 2-0 most likely scores though. 

Stakes, £60 Pod, £40 Bang.    No syndicate, just personal bets. 

Its nearly here.  WIth England out of the Euro Championships its the betting event of the summer for us.  There’s only one place to bet on Big Brother (evictions anyway) and that’s Betfair.  You’re not going to get your bet knocked back and prices are the best.  Get £25 free if you join Betfair with this code 3WC6THFMV

Bookmakers William Hill are planning on shipping in extra staff next week for the opening night of Big Brother and expect a reality TV betting bonanza when the new crop of housemates are unveiled. Hills will be betting throughout the night and expect to accept thousands of bets from Big Brother fans. Hills predict an industry turnover of £15 million on the outcome of BB9 and expect the reality TV industry to turnover £100 million in 2008. Hills are offering various specials for Big Brother including 100/1 that Big Brother will be taken off the air mid series and 5/1 that one of the wannabees changes his/her mind and walk out of the house within twenty four hours of entering it.

“In betting terms Big Brother is by far the most popular of all the reality shows. Turnover on reality TV has increased 100 fold in the last five years and we alone took £2 million on BB8. The most popular bet is the weekly eviction with an industry turnover of over a £1 million”,? said Hill?s spokesman Rupert Adams

William Hill Big Brother Specials:
5/2 Any contestant to receive over 90% of the eviction vote
3/1 OFCOM to demand another Public Apology following an incident that takes place during BB9
5/1 A Housemate to leave within 24hrs of the start
6/1 A Housemate to fall down stairs on arrival
16/1 Housemates to get married within One year of leaving house
20/1 A Housemate to be expelled from the house for fighting
100/1 BB to be taken off air mid series

How many Housemates will walk out?: 15/8 One, 7/4 None, 10/3 Two, 4/1 Three or more

Hull win 1-0.  Nice.  £98 profit each.  The 1X2 price for Hull was 2.38.  £40 extra if we’d have gone for that.  I am going to have to start doing more ‘odds against’ 1X2 bets.  Asian Handicaps are good but its so hard to make a consistent profit betting on those.

Anyway. a couple of interesting blogs.  First is an Italian Betting Blog.  (here’s) the google translated link.  Looks like he is a long term winner.  Maybe I’ll follow his picks for the summer.  Love the disclaimer at the bottom.

The other one is punt.com.  Its a blog by someone who makes a living off Betfair.  I think this page is worth a read if you are serious about betting.  http://www.punt.com/faqs/index.html

Knowledge is power.

If you aren’t a gambler but want to gamble, then I’m not going to stop you.  I always tell people to not gamble if they haven’t started and to stop if they have.  Particularly when they don’t appear to be very clued up.  Before anyone gambles for entertainment or otherwise they need to know a few things:

• Why bookmakers make a profit.
• Why casinos make a profit.
• Gambling causes problems for people, it can be dangerous to do, even for those with the best of intentions.
• This is a mathematical game, if you know points one and two then you will also know the chances of you making a profit is close to zero!
• The chances of you losing your money is therefore close to 100%.
• If you are doing it for entertainment then spend time figuring out how you will feel once you have lost.  Because quite simply, you will - make sure you are ok with that and make sure you won’t want to make it back.
• Never bet more money than you can afford to lose.
• Probability, probability, probability.  You can’t beat it.  The gambler’s fallacy. Don’t know about probability ? - Give up now.
• Never use gambling as an escape from real life problems.  Some gambling games hypnotically affect people, they are designed to suck you in and make you forget reality.  Never forget the bigger picture, know how much money you are betting.
• Some casinos pump oxygen round to keep the gambler’s going for longer, slot machines make trance like patterns with their lights.  Don’t you think this is more than a little out of order?
• It is in bookmakers best interests to glamorise gambling.  To make you think you can win and to push bad strategies subconsciously onto you.  Hardly surprising is it?
• People selling systems are almost guaranteed to be losers.  Why would you sell a system when the rewards for using it would be so much higher.  Also, a sold system becomes worthless because so many people use it and the bookmakers / markets change because of it - system no longer works.

I knew all those points apart from the casinos pumping oxygen into the rooms to keep gamblers alert.  I don’t think its out of order at all.  Allowing drunk people in to the casino is wrong.  Oxygen and flashing lights are the least of things thats wrong with casinos.

You can read the blog here

Champions League was a cracker.  My bet was a push, as exactly 2 goals.  Pod had £80 on Man U.  PaddyPower were doing a Ronaldo Speical, refunding all losing bets if he scored.  He bagged the first goal so Pod couldn’t lose. 

Anyway, this weekend, Hull to beat Bristol City is the bet.  We’ve had a ton each on this.  Hull finished the season stronger so its the logical bet to have.  Price is 1.98 at -0.25 on the Asian Handicap.   

Zenit won, thus breaking the losing streak.  Also had 50 notes on Pompy at 1.8 to win so clawing back some of last months losses but well down this season. 

Anyhow, Champions League.  To me this is a coin toss type bet.  I’d price up all 90 minute options as 2/1 (ie, 2/1 Man U, 2/1 draw and 2/1 Chelsea).  As it happends Man U are favourites.  Decided that the best bet would be over 2.0 goals on the goal line.  2 goals exactly is a push and money back.  I’ll be in the put watching the game so the more goals the better.  Only £15 staked as thats all I had in my Canbet account.  Price, 2.11.  It’ll pay for the beers if it comes in.