Betting Blog - Bang and Pod’s bets

Great game. France are a mere shadow of their former selves. I can’t believe they were favourites before the game. I think Holland will win the tournament now. If you can beat the World Champions 3-0 and the World Cup runner up 4-1, you’re a shit hot team. Italy and France are out now anyway. I can imagine that the Dutch will let Romania win.

Bet won but had £60 on Italy and £40 on Germany so only about £10 up overall.

Good write up of the game Holland/ France game on 101greatgoals with highlights.

Holland 4 - France 1 (Euro 2008, June 13, 2008) Domenech gave starts to Henry, Govou and Evra, however Malouda was surprisingly kept in the side. Ribery went close with an early header, but the 9th minute Van der Vaart had a corner, Malouda stood statuesque, and Dirk Kuyt nodded the Dutch in the lead. Holland went in search for a second, Sneijder firing over the bar. In the 22nd minute France finally had a shot on target when Govou struck in a smart shot which van der Sar saved with his leg. France were being ouplayed, and their frustrations were on full show as Makelele was booked for striking out at van der Vaart. At the end of the half the French began to look more dangerous, Malouda and Govou both forcing saves from van der Sar, while an ineffective Henry fired wide. (First half highlights here.) Henry had two good chances after the break, the first snuffed out by Ooijer’s handball which the referee failed to spot, and the second a bad miss over the bar after Malouda played a lovely through-ball. Van Basten sent on Robin van Persie for Kuyt, and the Arsenal striker made an immediate impact scoring the decisive second after great work from van Nistelrooy (cheeky backheel) and Robben. With 20 minutes remaining Sagnol charged down the right, crossed, and Thierry Henry got the faintest of touches to pull a goal back. But within 60 second Holland went 3-1 up, Arjen Robben scoring a fabulous solo goal high into Coupet’s near post. Ruud van Nistelrooy (lovely header from De Jong’s raking pass) and Robben came close to adding the fourth, before a wonderful injury-time strike from Wesley Sneijder sealed the win. Holland qualify (celebrations, with babies, here) from the Group of Death, while the French need to beat Italy to stay alive.

Could not resist this bet.  Portugal, 1.8 £75.  I ring Pod up to see if he’s having anything and he’s put £200 on it.  Not too much thought has gone into this bet.  All I know is that Portugal have Ronaldo, Nani and some other big stars.  I can’t name a single Turkish player.  Therefore, Portugal is nailed on!!

Its on ITV so I’ll be able to watch this in the comfort of my own home.

Champions League was a cracker.  My bet was a push, as exactly 2 goals.  Pod had £80 on Man U.  PaddyPower were doing a Ronaldo Speical, refunding all losing bets if he scored.  He bagged the first goal so Pod couldn’t lose. 

Anyway, this weekend, Hull to beat Bristol City is the bet.  We’ve had a ton each on this.  Hull finished the season stronger so its the logical bet to have.  Price is 1.98 at -0.25 on the Asian Handicap.   

Zenit won, thus breaking the losing streak.  Also had 50 notes on Pompy at 1.8 to win so clawing back some of last months losses but well down this season. 

Anyhow, Champions League.  To me this is a coin toss type bet.  I’d price up all 90 minute options as 2/1 (ie, 2/1 Man U, 2/1 draw and 2/1 Chelsea).  As it happends Man U are favourites.  Decided that the best bet would be over 2.0 goals on the goal line.  2 goals exactly is a push and money back.  I’ll be in the put watching the game so the more goals the better.  Only £15 staked as thats all I had in my Canbet account.  Price, 2.11.  It’ll pay for the beers if it comes in.

I couldn’t resist last weekend.  I put money on Villa andthey the drew 2-2.  Damn.  Going to try Zennit St Petersburg tonight. 2.3 at Hills is a good price.  I looked at the form and Zennit seem to have won their matches a little more convincingly than Rangers have.  £50 staked.  If this loses, definely stop betting

 Anyways, reading the betfair blog today and came across this article.   I’ll make sure I read all that before next season. 

http://betting.betfair.com/football/matt-talks-stats/facts-figures-and-fun-making-money-from-football-b-130508.html

“Magical” Matthew Walton reviews a number of previous football articles which YOU should be using to make yourself bigger profits

The purpose of our articles is to inform, entertain but, most importantly of all, to educate.
What we set out to do is provide thought-provoking features which illustrate new ways to approach your betting. Ways which ultimately make YOU more money.

Throughout the latter part of the season a number of topics have been highlighted and discussed with the use of statistical data. A handful have been revisited below as they have been proven to find YOU winners and, what’s more, they will do so time and again in the future.

Whether you’re a backer or a layer. If it’s in-running or ante-post you prefer, there’s something for everyone in these articles. Read them at your leisure, come back to them later for updates as to your own betting techniques but do make sure to approach your betting on Betfair with some knowledge of these discussions. After all, being better informed than the next backer is what it’s all about.

Below you’ll see half a dozen previous features which cover different areas of football betting. Study them and see how they can generate money when applied to the markets which YOU regularly use on Betfair.

Consistently Inconsistent - Why Don’t All Referees Act The Same Way?

We posed the argument that the number of cards shown in a match is determined more by the referee, than the match itself. Strange, we argued that some arbiters always seem to get ‘quiet’ games. We suggested that if the ‘nice’ Mark Halsey reffed the recent Liverpool v Man City match then the make-up of cards could very well be low. He did officiate this match. And the number of cards? None. See the figures for yourself.

Correct Score Trends - The Search For Reliable Form

By comparing the correct score results of teams in general week-to-week league play, with their previous head-to-head form with a specific opponent, we endeavoured to calculate the most likely results of certain matches. We chose one match from each division … and made a profit. You too can use this technique to increase your chances of success when analysing league, cup of even international matches.

First Goalscorer - Are You Getting Full Value For Your Bet?

Again, simple analysis highlights good/bad value. The prime example in this market was Cristiano Ronaldo, a player constantly over-priced in the first goalscorer market. Yes, this may have been a ‘freakish’ run by the Portuguese player but it brought to light the simple fact that when you put statistics and betting markets side by side, often you’ll see blindingly obvious value staring you in the face. Read more and see what you’re missing!

Football Betting Really Is A Game Of Two Halves

The HT/FT bet is a favourite of many Betfair backers. However, it’s another market to treat with caution. Do your homework and understand that whilst it may appear the easy way to turn a 90 minute win bet at [1.50] into a HT/FT bet that pays [2.5] it’s not quite as easy as that. Even the best of sides don’t win both halves as often as you’d expect and even the worst don’t lose that many times either …

The ‘Top’ And ‘Bottom’ Of Making Money This Weekend

There are many ways to assess matches - lineups, current form, previous meetings, home/away statistics etc. This line of investigation split the Premier League into two halves, top and bottom, and illustrated how Sunderland [3.3], Chelsea [1.8], Aston Villa [1.72] etc were the good things of the day. It’s all about adding more layers of analysis to your betting and so making it better informed and more profitable!

Goals Change Games - But When Are They Scored?

A great article for you in-running backers. The spread of goals scored in matches, in terms of minutes, offers a great avenue for profit when you have the facts and figures at your fingertips. Did you know the highest percentage of goals are scored in the last 15 minutes of a game? And the lowest in the first 15 minutes. Read this article and see why so many Betfair markets are open to in-running trades, given the right information.

And the wonderful thing about football betting? The fact that after one season ends we don’t have to wait too long until a new one swings into view.

The topics covered here are timeless and with just a quick refresher as to the current statistics they can make you money match-by-match, week-by-week, season-by-season.

Enjoy your football betting on Betfair … but do make it pay!

Villa destroyed my treble.  More money down the pan.  Going to quit until next season.  Got a mention on this blog  http://touchlinedad.merseyblogs.co.uk/2008/05/my_mate_woodsy_considers_himse.html    Laugh all you want. Next season we’ll be back, better than before.

The clawback mission didn’t go well either, had Sunderland to beat Bolton.  5.5 was too good before the match.  Bolton win 2-0. 

Sunday I had Liverpool, -1 on the Asian.  They won 1-0 (so money back) but it was scary at the end.  Liverpool should have murdered Man City, the shots tally was 23 to 4, 10-3 (on Target).  They need to get rid of Dirk Kuyt, he couldn’t score in a brothel.

So thats its for the betting updates until August probably.  No England in the Euro 2008 so probably not bother or maybe support Portugal (watching Ronaldo and Nani is joy). 

Come Big Brother time, the real Stephen Lawton will be making some guest posts about Big Brother betting Investing.  He’s made money every season for the last 3 years or so. Ste’s philosophy is that it’s just a big opinion poll and if you watch it, read the online polls, you can make money. He doesn’t bet a poxy £100 a time, its a grand or two.

No bets this weekend for the syndicate.  Gone bust. 

No bets for me either.  Last weekend was devastating and Chelsea conceding in the 92nd has summed up my month.  This weeks fixtures are pretty hard to predict anyway. 

 Pods had a £50 patent on Wolves, Cardiff and Leeds on the Asian Handicap.  With his current form it’ll come in.  (A Patent consists of 7 bets involving 3 selections in different events, ie. 3 singles, 3 doubles, and 1 Treble.), £350 staked. 

Another early end of the month.  Todays bets were Mk Dons and Cardiff, double.  MK dons draw 2-2.  Lost £100.  Next bet was West Brom single, £82.  Lost.  Bank down to -£400 and its game over. 

Personal bets have gone worse.  Heavy losses this month.  Had, West Brom, West Brom overs, Reading, Sunderland, Hull, Spuds overs, Abderdeen, all seemingly good bets but none won.  All level stakes at £50.  Ouch. 

Don’t know whats happening.  Don’t seem to be able to pick any winners at all.  We’ll be back next month. 

Pomey win 1-0.  Sheff U draw 2-2 after being 2-0 down.  No good for the betting.  Both bets lose.  Bank down to -£218.  Could be another short month this. 

Classic at Anfield last night.  Some crazy odds landed in running according to the betfair blog  I was doing some trading.  Had the draw when Liverpool were 2-1 up.  I was going to get out when Arsenal equalised but the penalty for Liverpool happened before the market settled and I didn’t get out in time. 

Liverpool were matched at a high of [8.0] in-running on Betfair to win a rollercoaster quarter-final against Arsenal tonight.

Arsene Wenger’s team touched [1.2] to qualify after seemingly taking a decisive away goal advantage with an Emmanuel Adebayor strike in the 85th minute.

But a Steven Gerrard equaliser from the penalty spot just a minute later denied Betfair customers taking the short price.

The eventual 4-2 scoreline landed in-running bets of [110.0] on the correct score market while over 4.5 goals was matched at [34.0] on the exchange.

Cardiff win 1-0.  Pretty lucky though, Odejayi missed a sitter for Barnsley.  Bank to -£18 now.  Looking better. 

Champions League, is tricky.  Dodging Liverpool/ Arsenal at all costs.  Is on ITV so should be a good one to watch at home.  Chelsea should win but it wouldn’t surprise me if Fenebahce sneaked a draw.  Man U and Barca don’t need to win so the usually good odds aren’t actually that good. 

West Ham to beat Pompey looks a good bet.  Pompey played at the weekend, whereas West Ham didn’t.  Don’t know how bothered Pompy can be at this stage of the season.  Unlikely to catch Everton, they’ll get UEFA Cup action next year with winning the FA Cup.  2.08 -0.25 on the Asian Handicap is a good price.  £100 staked. 

Other bet has writing all over the wall. 

Bet Slip - Thank You and Good Luck!