Betting Blog - Bang and Pod’s bets

Its nearly here.  WIth England out of the Euro Championships its the betting event of the summer for us.  There’s only one place to bet on Big Brother (evictions anyway) and that’s Betfair.  You’re not going to get your bet knocked back and prices are the best.  Get £25 free if you join Betfair with this code 3WC6THFMV

Bookmakers William Hill are planning on shipping in extra staff next week for the opening night of Big Brother and expect a reality TV betting bonanza when the new crop of housemates are unveiled. Hills will be betting throughout the night and expect to accept thousands of bets from Big Brother fans. Hills predict an industry turnover of £15 million on the outcome of BB9 and expect the reality TV industry to turnover £100 million in 2008. Hills are offering various specials for Big Brother including 100/1 that Big Brother will be taken off the air mid series and 5/1 that one of the wannabees changes his/her mind and walk out of the house within twenty four hours of entering it.

“In betting terms Big Brother is by far the most popular of all the reality shows. Turnover on reality TV has increased 100 fold in the last five years and we alone took £2 million on BB8. The most popular bet is the weekly eviction with an industry turnover of over a £1 million”,? said Hill?s spokesman Rupert Adams

William Hill Big Brother Specials:
5/2 Any contestant to receive over 90% of the eviction vote
3/1 OFCOM to demand another Public Apology following an incident that takes place during BB9
5/1 A Housemate to leave within 24hrs of the start
6/1 A Housemate to fall down stairs on arrival
16/1 Housemates to get married within One year of leaving house
20/1 A Housemate to be expelled from the house for fighting
100/1 BB to be taken off air mid series

How many Housemates will walk out?: 15/8 One, 7/4 None, 10/3 Two, 4/1 Three or more

 

Hull win 1-0.  Nice.  £98 profit each.  The 1X2 price for Hull was 2.38.  £40 extra if we’d have gone for that.  I am going to have to start doing more ‘odds against’ 1X2 bets.  Asian Handicaps are good but its so hard to make a consistent profit betting on those.

Anyway. a couple of interesting blogs.  First is an Italian Betting Blog.  (here’s) the google translated link.  Looks like he is a long term winner.  Maybe I’ll follow his picks for the summer.  Love the disclaimer at the bottom.

The other one is punt.com.  Its a blog by someone who makes a living off Betfair.  I think this page is worth a read if you are serious about betting.  http://www.punt.com/faqs/index.html

Knowledge is power.

If you aren’t a gambler but want to gamble, then I’m not going to stop you.  I always tell people to not gamble if they haven’t started and to stop if they have.  Particularly when they don’t appear to be very clued up.  Before anyone gambles for entertainment or otherwise they need to know a few things:

• Why bookmakers make a profit.
• Why casinos make a profit.
• Gambling causes problems for people, it can be dangerous to do, even for those with the best of intentions.
• This is a mathematical game, if you know points one and two then you will also know the chances of you making a profit is close to zero!
• The chances of you losing your money is therefore close to 100%.
• If you are doing it for entertainment then spend time figuring out how you will feel once you have lost.  Because quite simply, you will - make sure you are ok with that and make sure you won’t want to make it back.
• Never bet more money than you can afford to lose.
• Probability, probability, probability.  You can’t beat it.  The gambler’s fallacy. Don’t know about probability ? - Give up now.
• Never use gambling as an escape from real life problems.  Some gambling games hypnotically affect people, they are designed to suck you in and make you forget reality.  Never forget the bigger picture, know how much money you are betting.
• Some casinos pump oxygen round to keep the gambler’s going for longer, slot machines make trance like patterns with their lights.  Don’t you think this is more than a little out of order?
• It is in bookmakers best interests to glamorise gambling.  To make you think you can win and to push bad strategies subconsciously onto you.  Hardly surprising is it?
• People selling systems are almost guaranteed to be losers.  Why would you sell a system when the rewards for using it would be so much higher.  Also, a sold system becomes worthless because so many people use it and the bookmakers / markets change because of it - system no longer works.

I knew all those points apart from the casinos pumping oxygen into the rooms to keep gamblers alert.  I don’t think its out of order at all.  Allowing drunk people in to the casino is wrong.  Oxygen and flashing lights are the least of things thats wrong with casinos.

You can read the blog here

Champions League was a cracker.  My bet was a push, as exactly 2 goals.  Pod had £80 on Man U.  PaddyPower were doing a Ronaldo Speical, refunding all losing bets if he scored.  He bagged the first goal so Pod couldn’t lose. 

Anyway, this weekend, Hull to beat Bristol City is the bet.  We’ve had a ton each on this.  Hull finished the season stronger so its the logical bet to have.  Price is 1.98 at -0.25 on the Asian Handicap.   

Zenit won, thus breaking the losing streak.  Also had 50 notes on Pompy at 1.8 to win so clawing back some of last months losses but well down this season. 

Anyhow, Champions League.  To me this is a coin toss type bet.  I’d price up all 90 minute options as 2/1 (ie, 2/1 Man U, 2/1 draw and 2/1 Chelsea).  As it happends Man U are favourites.  Decided that the best bet would be over 2.0 goals on the goal line.  2 goals exactly is a push and money back.  I’ll be in the put watching the game so the more goals the better.  Only £15 staked as thats all I had in my Canbet account.  Price, 2.11.  It’ll pay for the beers if it comes in.

I couldn’t resist last weekend.  I put money on Villa andthey the drew 2-2.  Damn.  Going to try Zennit St Petersburg tonight. 2.3 at Hills is a good price.  I looked at the form and Zennit seem to have won their matches a little more convincingly than Rangers have.  £50 staked.  If this loses, definely stop betting

 Anyways, reading the betfair blog today and came across this article.   I’ll make sure I read all that before next season. 

http://betting.betfair.com/football/matt-talks-stats/facts-figures-and-fun-making-money-from-football-b-130508.html

“Magical” Matthew Walton reviews a number of previous football articles which YOU should be using to make yourself bigger profits

The purpose of our articles is to inform, entertain but, most importantly of all, to educate.
What we set out to do is provide thought-provoking features which illustrate new ways to approach your betting. Ways which ultimately make YOU more money.

Throughout the latter part of the season a number of topics have been highlighted and discussed with the use of statistical data. A handful have been revisited below as they have been proven to find YOU winners and, what’s more, they will do so time and again in the future.

Whether you’re a backer or a layer. If it’s in-running or ante-post you prefer, there’s something for everyone in these articles. Read them at your leisure, come back to them later for updates as to your own betting techniques but do make sure to approach your betting on Betfair with some knowledge of these discussions. After all, being better informed than the next backer is what it’s all about.

Below you’ll see half a dozen previous features which cover different areas of football betting. Study them and see how they can generate money when applied to the markets which YOU regularly use on Betfair.

Consistently Inconsistent - Why Don’t All Referees Act The Same Way?

We posed the argument that the number of cards shown in a match is determined more by the referee, than the match itself. Strange, we argued that some arbiters always seem to get ‘quiet’ games. We suggested that if the ‘nice’ Mark Halsey reffed the recent Liverpool v Man City match then the make-up of cards could very well be low. He did officiate this match. And the number of cards? None. See the figures for yourself.

Correct Score Trends - The Search For Reliable Form

By comparing the correct score results of teams in general week-to-week league play, with their previous head-to-head form with a specific opponent, we endeavoured to calculate the most likely results of certain matches. We chose one match from each division … and made a profit. You too can use this technique to increase your chances of success when analysing league, cup of even international matches.

First Goalscorer - Are You Getting Full Value For Your Bet?

Again, simple analysis highlights good/bad value. The prime example in this market was Cristiano Ronaldo, a player constantly over-priced in the first goalscorer market. Yes, this may have been a ‘freakish’ run by the Portuguese player but it brought to light the simple fact that when you put statistics and betting markets side by side, often you’ll see blindingly obvious value staring you in the face. Read more and see what you’re missing!

Football Betting Really Is A Game Of Two Halves

The HT/FT bet is a favourite of many Betfair backers. However, it’s another market to treat with caution. Do your homework and understand that whilst it may appear the easy way to turn a 90 minute win bet at [1.50] into a HT/FT bet that pays [2.5] it’s not quite as easy as that. Even the best of sides don’t win both halves as often as you’d expect and even the worst don’t lose that many times either …

The ‘Top’ And ‘Bottom’ Of Making Money This Weekend

There are many ways to assess matches - lineups, current form, previous meetings, home/away statistics etc. This line of investigation split the Premier League into two halves, top and bottom, and illustrated how Sunderland [3.3], Chelsea [1.8], Aston Villa [1.72] etc were the good things of the day. It’s all about adding more layers of analysis to your betting and so making it better informed and more profitable!

Goals Change Games - But When Are They Scored?

A great article for you in-running backers. The spread of goals scored in matches, in terms of minutes, offers a great avenue for profit when you have the facts and figures at your fingertips. Did you know the highest percentage of goals are scored in the last 15 minutes of a game? And the lowest in the first 15 minutes. Read this article and see why so many Betfair markets are open to in-running trades, given the right information.

And the wonderful thing about football betting? The fact that after one season ends we don’t have to wait too long until a new one swings into view.

The topics covered here are timeless and with just a quick refresher as to the current statistics they can make you money match-by-match, week-by-week, season-by-season.

Enjoy your football betting on Betfair … but do make it pay!

Villa destroyed my treble.  More money down the pan.  Going to quit until next season.  Got a mention on this blog  http://touchlinedad.merseyblogs.co.uk/2008/05/my_mate_woodsy_considers_himse.html    Laugh all you want. Next season we’ll be back, better than before.

The clawback mission didn’t go well either, had Sunderland to beat Bolton.  5.5 was too good before the match.  Bolton win 2-0. 

Sunday I had Liverpool, -1 on the Asian.  They won 1-0 (so money back) but it was scary at the end.  Liverpool should have murdered Man City, the shots tally was 23 to 4, 10-3 (on Target).  They need to get rid of Dirk Kuyt, he couldn’t score in a brothel.

So thats its for the betting updates until August probably.  No England in the Euro 2008 so probably not bother or maybe support Portugal (watching Ronaldo and Nani is joy). 

Come Big Brother time, the real Stephen Lawton will be making some guest posts about Big Brother betting Investing.  He’s made money every season for the last 3 years or so. Ste’s philosophy is that it’s just a big opinion poll and if you watch it, read the online polls, you can make money. He doesn’t bet a poxy £100 a time, its a grand or two.

It was meant to start again this month.  There’s only this weekend and next left of the football betting season so we’ve decided to give it a miss.  We’ve still betting individually but not putting money in to a pot. 

My first bet of the month is going to be a rock solid banker treble.  If any of these fail, I think it’ll be time to stop betting for good.  Just can’t see it. Man U have to win, Derby can’t stop getting thrashed and Villa are in form and still could take 5th place from Everton. 

Man Utd v West Ham
Aston Villa v Wigan Athletic
Blackburn v Derby

All home wins, £50 staked at 2.36

 Got this from PaddyPower today.  Sometimes good value in special bets as the odds setters aren’t doing these week in week out.

PADDY POWER SPECIALS

Champions League Final

11/2 Fergie to win the Champions League and retire before the start of next season

 

Man Utd v Chelsea

6/4 Man Utd

2/1 Draw

15/8 Chelsea

To Lift The Cup

4/6 Man Utd

11/10 Chelsea

 

Premier League Latest

2/7 Man Utd

12/5 Chelsea

 

Premier League Relegation

	Go Down	Stay Up
Fulham	1/73	4/1
Birmingham	Evs	8/11
Bolton	6/4	1/2
Reading	2/1	1/3
Middlesbrough	22/1	-

Chelsea & Man Utd Title Race – two games to go

Who will score most goals across their last two games

Evs Man Utd

6/4 Chelsea

7/2 Tie

8/15 Man Utd to win both games

4/5 Chelsea to win both games

11/8 Man Utd not to take 6 points in their last two games

10/11 Chelsea not to take 6 points in their last two games

Winning goals in injury time

6/1 Man Utd to score a winning goal in 2^nd half injury time of either game

10/1 Man Utd to concede a goal in 2^nd half injury time to prevent a win in either game

7/1 Chelsea to score a winning goal in 2^nd half injury time of either game

9/1 Chelsea to concede a goal in 2^nd half injury time to prevent a win in either game

Fulham v Birmingham

4/1 Fulham to win and stay up

11/5 Fulham to win and get relegated

Championship Race

	Outright	Promotion
West Brom	4/9	-
Stoke	13/8	1/25
Hull		21/10
Crystal Palace		5/2
Bristol City		7/2
Watford		4/1
Wolves		13/2
Ipswich		14/1
Sheff Utd		40/1

 

Championship Relegation

 

Evs Southampton

11/8 Leicester

6/1 Sheff Weds

22/1 Coventry

25/1 Barnsley

 

Championship Last Day of the Season

Play-off Winner

 

9/4 Hull

7/2 Bristol City

4/1 Watford

5/2 Crystal Palace

13/2 Wolves

14/1 Ipswich

20/1 Sheff Utd

40/1 Stoke

 

HT/FT Automatic Promotion Place

1/16 Stoke/Stoke

15/2 Stoke/Hull

16/1 Hull/Stoke

40/1 Hull/Hull

HT/FT To Be Relegated

 

7/4 Southampton/Southampton

14/1 Southampton/Leicester

33/1 Southampton/Sheff Weds

10/1 Leicester/Southampton

9/4 Leicester/Leicester

33/1 Leicester/Sheff Weds

16/1 Sheff Weds/Southampton

25/1 Sheff Weds/Leicester

8/1 Sheff Weds/Sheff Weds

 

Saints v Sheff Utd

7/4 James Beattie to score

80/1 James Beattie to score an own goal

Sven’s Next Club

15/8 Lazio

5/1 Roma

6/1 Valencia

7/1 Chelsea

10/1 Real Madrid

11/1 Barcelona

14/1 Marseille

14/1 AC Milan

14/1 Inter Milan

20/1 Benfica

33/1 Liverpool

40/1 Man Utd

Next Permanent Man City Manager

5/2 F Scolari

8/1 G Hiddink

8/1 Mourinho

12/1 Ranieri

12/1 Mancini

12/1 Houillier

12/1 Rijkaard

12/1 Allardyce

14/1 Lippi

14/1 McClaren

18/1 M Laudrup

18/1 Koeman

22/1 Hughes

25/1 Ince

33/1 Benitez

33/1 Martinez

40/1 Wenger

40/1 Hoddle

50/1 Keegan

50/1 Pearce

125/1 Ferguson

1000/1 Goater

Owner Sack Race Betting – club owners these days are changing almost s much as the managers, who’s next to leave?

11/4 Tom Hicks (Liverpool)3/1 George Gillett (Liverpool)

6/1 The Golds (Birmingham)

7/1 Daniel Levy (Spurs)

12/1 Thaksin Shinawatra (Man City)

14/1 John Madejski (Reading)

16/1 The Glazers (Man Utd)

16/1 Roman Abramovich (Chelsea)

18/1 Al Fayed (Fulham)

18/1 Gudmundsson (West Ham)

20/1 Alisher Usmanov (Arsenal)

25/1 Walker Trusties (Blackburn)

25/1 Mike Ashley (Newcastle)

25/1 Bill Kenwright (Everton)

25/1 Randy Lerner (Aston Villa)

25/1 Alexandre Gaydamak (Portsmouth)

25/1 Drumaville Consortium (Sunderland)

28/1 David Whelan (Wigan)

28/1 Steve Gibson (Boro)