Archive for December, 2007

New Year Bets

Monday, December 31st, 2007

First off a nice banker treble.  Bolton, Liverpool and Man U.  Bolton have Derby who are hopeless.  They’re going down and there’s not much Jewell or anyone can do.  Man U have Birmingham.  Man U have the best home record in the league and this win should be routine, the odds do reflect this, 1.17.  Liverpool have Wigan.  I can’t see the Pool dropping any points at home to these.  Treble pays 2.26 at Betfred on the 7th Heaven coupon. 

We’ve skipped the Arsenal and Chelsea bankers as I don’t they are bankers.  West Ham have beaten Arsenal twice in the last 2 seasons at home so why not again?  I’d need more than the 1.36 to oppose a side that came from behind to beat Man U.  Fulham have a new manager and for whatever reason, teams with new managers usually over perform.  Chelsea needed a late offside goal to defeat Newcastle.  Chelsea should win but 1.57 for an away win is not good enough. 

Second bet is Palace to beat Norwich.  Both are having great runs of form under new managers.  Something has to give.  Palace being the home team should win this.  1.88 on the Asian Handicap is a nice price. 

£100 staked on each. 

Some Crazy Odds available in running today

Saturday, December 29th, 2007 

Just looking on the betfair blog and saw these big in running prices that won today.   I wasn’t pleased by the West Ham or Arsenal comebacks. 

Everton v Arsenal

Arsenal did it the hard way as they were matched at 7.2 away to Everton before going on to score four. Everton were matched at 1.68 as they led by the single goal but that only lasted until early on in the second-half when Eduardo scored the first of two goals.

Correct score “any unquoted” was the winning runner in that market courtesy of Rosicky’s injury-time fourth and was matched at 55 and a sending-off (there were two- Arteta and Bendtner) was matched at 6.4. It was a good day for buyers of the bookings with the total make-up ending up at 100 with the average spread around the 45 mark.

Arsenal to be behind at half-time and winning at full-time was matched at 34.

Arsenal are now back into 3.2 for the Premiership title with Man Utd out to odds-against again having traded at 1.53 before today’s matches.

Other matches:

West Ham drifted to odds of 80 on Betfair after going 1-0 down at home to Man Utd; 2-1 correct score was matched at 130.

Chelsea drifted to 3.5 at home to Newcastle before Kalou’s winner just 3 minutes from time.

Villa drifted to 7.6 after going a goal down away to Wigan.

Manchester United’s defeat at Upton Park has pushed their price out to 1.87 for the Premiership title, having traded at a season-low 1.53 after Arsenal’s slip-up at Portsmouth on Boxing Day. Arsenal are in action right now away to Everton.

Sunderland’s win at home to Bolton has eased them to 3.5 for Premiership relegation.

To win the Premiership- Man Utd 2.06, Arsenal 3.2, Chelsea 9, Liverpool 11.5.

Final result of the year.

Saturday, December 29th, 2007

Birmingham could only manage a 1-1 draw.  1 down at half time I was not really worried.  Fulham haven’t won away for months.  Oh, well bank down to a mere +£61.  So thats it.  December total. 

Total since February then is +£196.  Better luck for next year then.  Its not a loss but the margin is so slim it doesn’t feel like we are winners.  Just 1 even money result going the other way and we’d be down. 

Weekend betting and update

Friday, December 28th, 2007

Man City were 2-1 up with 7 minutes to go. Game finishes 2-2.  Half bet loss then.  Guess all good things must come to an end.  Bank down to +£161. 

Only bet left for the year is Birmingham to beat Fulham.  2.1, £100.  Pretty confident about this one.  Best price is now 1.95 so whatever happens it was a good value bet. 

Some other bets which have taken my fancy, which I have took solo are:

Man U/ Spuds double, 2.4.  Odds for both are pretty poor.  Little value in either of them so logically the double is bad value too.  I just feel that both sides will win and the double price is acceptable. 

In form Everton should have enough to get a point at least from an out of form Arsenal, who are suffering a bout of Arsenalitis.  There’s only that Rosicky that seems to be able to shoot from outside the 6 yard box.  2.1, Everton +0.25, is a great price. 

Finally, Palace draw no bet vs the blades.  Sheff Utd are so inconsistent.  They had 11 vs 10 for most of the game against Blackpool and still could not win.  Palace, who are managed by their old boss Warnock are on a decent run.  Price for the draw no bet is 2.5.  I prefer that to the 1.95 or so on the Asian Handicap (+0.25). 

£50 staked on all of those. 

Little update

Thursday, December 27th, 2007

Liverpool leave it very late but just get through.  You can imagine the expletives I was shouting about scousers when the score was 1-1.  Profit of £188 so bank now up to £211.  Even if the 2 bets we have lose now, we’re going to be in profit this month and therefore the year.  Its been a lot harder making a profit that any of us thought.  We’ve had some stinking luck but it all evens it self out over the year.  Gerrards late goal yesterday was the difference between being £100 down and being £188 up. 

Maybe poker is the way forward, just signed up to blue square  The sneaks add a little blackjack link to the poker table to encourage people play blackjack when they are waiting for their turn in poker.  Ended up £50 up playing blackjack and thought I’d best quit whilst I was ahead. 

More bets

Wednesday, December 26th, 2007

Last post title was a lie.  I didn’t realise there were more fixtures before New Year. 

So we have Man City -0.25 on the Asian Handicap against Blackburn.  1.89.  £100.  Cannot see why the handicap is only 0.25.  Odds should be like that but for a half ball handicap. 

Second extra bet is Birmingham to beat Fulham.  2.1.  Bookies have had to price this up before todays results.  Fulham get hammered 5-1 while Birmingham are 2-0 up at half time.  I can see this price falling when the bookes factor this back in.  Should be about 1.83.  Another £100 staked. 

Should be a good day today if Liverpool hang on.  1-0 up against Derby at half time.  Should be a formality but you never know.  Man U are home and dry.  3-0 up at half time, they’ll not fail to win now. 

Last bet of the year

Sunday, December 23rd, 2007

Well, Newcastle draw (actually, draw/draw).  Terrible result.  Bank now down to +£23.  Bullet dodged really.  Was going to double up on Newcastle after they went 1 down but glad we didn’t.

So boxing day bet is

£100.00 Treble

Market Selection Price
Midweek 7th Heaven
Derby V Liverpool
Liverpool 3/10
Midweek 7th Heaven
Sunderland V Man Utd
Man Utd 4/9
Midweek 7th Heaven
Tottenham V Fulham
Tottenham 8/15
Total stake £100.00
Estimated return £287.93
Full stake £100.00
Full Estimated return £287.9

Pretty obvious rationale.

Sundays bets

Sunday, December 23rd, 2007

Yesterday ended up evens.  Sheffield United are blacklisted for a reason.  Not betting on them again. 

Todays bet is Newcastle HT/FT to beat Derby.  Price 1.91, £100 staked. 

Weekend betting and recap

Saturday, December 22nd, 2007

Two bad results.  Man City lose to Spuds.  £100 down.  Then a banker darts bet goes down the toilet.  Unreal, bloke was pissing it, matched on betfair at 1.01, had 11 darts to hit a double and lost.  Bank down to £123. 

Today we have Reading (posted before) and a late bet on Sheffield United.  Odds are pretty good but just remembered that half the Shef Utd team have flu.  Anyway, £100 staked at 3.25. 

Could not resist

Tuesday, December 18th, 2007

Sven puts out a full strength team to play Spurs.  Odds of 2.08 at -2.08 is too good to resist.  £100 staked.