Betting Blog - Bang and Pod’s bets

I couldn’t resist last weekend.  I put money on Villa andthey the drew 2-2.  Damn.  Going to try Zennit St Petersburg tonight. 2.3 at Hills is a good price.  I looked at the form and Zennit seem to have won their matches a little more convincingly than Rangers have.  £50 staked.  If this loses, definely stop betting

 Anyways, reading the betfair blog today and came across this article.   I’ll make sure I read all that before next season. 

http://betting.betfair.com/football/matt-talks-stats/facts-figures-and-fun-making-money-from-football-b-130508.html

“Magical” Matthew Walton reviews a number of previous football articles which YOU should be using to make yourself bigger profits

The purpose of our articles is to inform, entertain but, most importantly of all, to educate.
What we set out to do is provide thought-provoking features which illustrate new ways to approach your betting. Ways which ultimately make YOU more money.

Throughout the latter part of the season a number of topics have been highlighted and discussed with the use of statistical data. A handful have been revisited below as they have been proven to find YOU winners and, what’s more, they will do so time and again in the future.

Whether you’re a backer or a layer. If it’s in-running or ante-post you prefer, there’s something for everyone in these articles. Read them at your leisure, come back to them later for updates as to your own betting techniques but do make sure to approach your betting on Betfair with some knowledge of these discussions. After all, being better informed than the next backer is what it’s all about.

Below you’ll see half a dozen previous features which cover different areas of football betting. Study them and see how they can generate money when applied to the markets which YOU regularly use on Betfair.

Consistently Inconsistent - Why Don’t All Referees Act The Same Way?

We posed the argument that the number of cards shown in a match is determined more by the referee, than the match itself. Strange, we argued that some arbiters always seem to get ‘quiet’ games. We suggested that if the ‘nice’ Mark Halsey reffed the recent Liverpool v Man City match then the make-up of cards could very well be low. He did officiate this match. And the number of cards? None. See the figures for yourself.

Correct Score Trends - The Search For Reliable Form

By comparing the correct score results of teams in general week-to-week league play, with their previous head-to-head form with a specific opponent, we endeavoured to calculate the most likely results of certain matches. We chose one match from each division … and made a profit. You too can use this technique to increase your chances of success when analysing league, cup of even international matches.

First Goalscorer - Are You Getting Full Value For Your Bet?

Again, simple analysis highlights good/bad value. The prime example in this market was Cristiano Ronaldo, a player constantly over-priced in the first goalscorer market. Yes, this may have been a ‘freakish’ run by the Portuguese player but it brought to light the simple fact that when you put statistics and betting markets side by side, often you’ll see blindingly obvious value staring you in the face. Read more and see what you’re missing!

Football Betting Really Is A Game Of Two Halves

The HT/FT bet is a favourite of many Betfair backers. However, it’s another market to treat with caution. Do your homework and understand that whilst it may appear the easy way to turn a 90 minute win bet at [1.50] into a HT/FT bet that pays [2.5] it’s not quite as easy as that. Even the best of sides don’t win both halves as often as you’d expect and even the worst don’t lose that many times either …

The ‘Top’ And ‘Bottom’ Of Making Money This Weekend

There are many ways to assess matches - lineups, current form, previous meetings, home/away statistics etc. This line of investigation split the Premier League into two halves, top and bottom, and illustrated how Sunderland [3.3], Chelsea [1.8], Aston Villa [1.72] etc were the good things of the day. It’s all about adding more layers of analysis to your betting and so making it better informed and more profitable!

Goals Change Games - But When Are They Scored?

A great article for you in-running backers. The spread of goals scored in matches, in terms of minutes, offers a great avenue for profit when you have the facts and figures at your fingertips. Did you know the highest percentage of goals are scored in the last 15 minutes of a game? And the lowest in the first 15 minutes. Read this article and see why so many Betfair markets are open to in-running trades, given the right information.

And the wonderful thing about football betting? The fact that after one season ends we don’t have to wait too long until a new one swings into view.

The topics covered here are timeless and with just a quick refresher as to the current statistics they can make you money match-by-match, week-by-week, season-by-season.

Enjoy your football betting on Betfair … but do make it pay!

Villa destroyed my treble.  More money down the pan.  Going to quit until next season.  Got a mention on this blog  http://touchlinedad.merseyblogs.co.uk/2008/05/my_mate_woodsy_considers_himse.html    Laugh all you want. Next season we’ll be back, better than before.

The clawback mission didn’t go well either, had Sunderland to beat Bolton.  5.5 was too good before the match.  Bolton win 2-0. 

Sunday I had Liverpool, -1 on the Asian.  They won 1-0 (so money back) but it was scary at the end.  Liverpool should have murdered Man City, the shots tally was 23 to 4, 10-3 (on Target).  They need to get rid of Dirk Kuyt, he couldn’t score in a brothel.

So thats its for the betting updates until August probably.  No England in the Euro 2008 so probably not bother or maybe support Portugal (watching Ronaldo and Nani is joy). 

Come Big Brother time, the real Stephen Lawton will be making some guest posts about Big Brother betting Investing.  He’s made money every season for the last 3 years or so. Ste’s philosophy is that it’s just a big opinion poll and if you watch it, read the online polls, you can make money. He doesn’t bet a poxy £100 a time, its a grand or two.

It was meant to start again this month.  There’s only this weekend and next left of the football betting season so we’ve decided to give it a miss.  We’ve still betting individually but not putting money in to a pot. 

My first bet of the month is going to be a rock solid banker treble.  If any of these fail, I think it’ll be time to stop betting for good.  Just can’t see it. Man U have to win, Derby can’t stop getting thrashed and Villa are in form and still could take 5th place from Everton. 

Man Utd v West Ham
Aston Villa v Wigan Athletic
Blackburn v Derby

All home wins, £50 staked at 2.36

 Got this from PaddyPower today.  Sometimes good value in special bets as the odds setters aren’t doing these week in week out.

PADDY POWER SPECIALS

Champions League Final

11/2 Fergie to win the Champions League and retire before the start of next season

 

Man Utd v Chelsea

6/4 Man Utd

2/1 Draw

15/8 Chelsea

To Lift The Cup

4/6 Man Utd

11/10 Chelsea

 

Premier League Latest

2/7 Man Utd

12/5 Chelsea

 

Premier League Relegation

	Go Down	Stay Up
Fulham	1/73	4/1
Birmingham	Evs	8/11
Bolton	6/4	1/2
Reading	2/1	1/3
Middlesbrough	22/1	-

Chelsea & Man Utd Title Race – two games to go

Who will score most goals across their last two games

Evs Man Utd

6/4 Chelsea

7/2 Tie

8/15 Man Utd to win both games

4/5 Chelsea to win both games

11/8 Man Utd not to take 6 points in their last two games

10/11 Chelsea not to take 6 points in their last two games

Winning goals in injury time

6/1 Man Utd to score a winning goal in 2^nd half injury time of either game

10/1 Man Utd to concede a goal in 2^nd half injury time to prevent a win in either game

7/1 Chelsea to score a winning goal in 2^nd half injury time of either game

9/1 Chelsea to concede a goal in 2^nd half injury time to prevent a win in either game

Fulham v Birmingham

4/1 Fulham to win and stay up

11/5 Fulham to win and get relegated

Championship Race

	Outright	Promotion
West Brom	4/9	-
Stoke	13/8	1/25
Hull		21/10
Crystal Palace		5/2
Bristol City		7/2
Watford		4/1
Wolves		13/2
Ipswich		14/1
Sheff Utd		40/1

 

Championship Relegation

 

Evs Southampton

11/8 Leicester

6/1 Sheff Weds

22/1 Coventry

25/1 Barnsley

 

Championship Last Day of the Season

Play-off Winner

 

9/4 Hull

7/2 Bristol City

4/1 Watford

5/2 Crystal Palace

13/2 Wolves

14/1 Ipswich

20/1 Sheff Utd

40/1 Stoke

 

HT/FT Automatic Promotion Place

1/16 Stoke/Stoke

15/2 Stoke/Hull

16/1 Hull/Stoke

40/1 Hull/Hull

HT/FT To Be Relegated

 

7/4 Southampton/Southampton

14/1 Southampton/Leicester

33/1 Southampton/Sheff Weds

10/1 Leicester/Southampton

9/4 Leicester/Leicester

33/1 Leicester/Sheff Weds

16/1 Sheff Weds/Southampton

25/1 Sheff Weds/Leicester

8/1 Sheff Weds/Sheff Weds

 

Saints v Sheff Utd

7/4 James Beattie to score

80/1 James Beattie to score an own goal

Sven’s Next Club

15/8 Lazio

5/1 Roma

6/1 Valencia

7/1 Chelsea

10/1 Real Madrid

11/1 Barcelona

14/1 Marseille

14/1 AC Milan

14/1 Inter Milan

20/1 Benfica

33/1 Liverpool

40/1 Man Utd

Next Permanent Man City Manager

5/2 F Scolari

8/1 G Hiddink

8/1 Mourinho

12/1 Ranieri

12/1 Mancini

12/1 Houillier

12/1 Rijkaard

12/1 Allardyce

14/1 Lippi

14/1 McClaren

18/1 M Laudrup

18/1 Koeman

22/1 Hughes

25/1 Ince

33/1 Benitez

33/1 Martinez

40/1 Wenger

40/1 Hoddle

50/1 Keegan

50/1 Pearce

125/1 Ferguson

1000/1 Goater

Owner Sack Race Betting – club owners these days are changing almost s much as the managers, who’s next to leave?

11/4 Tom Hicks (Liverpool)3/1 George Gillett (Liverpool)

6/1 The Golds (Birmingham)

7/1 Daniel Levy (Spurs)

12/1 Thaksin Shinawatra (Man City)

14/1 John Madejski (Reading)

16/1 The Glazers (Man Utd)

16/1 Roman Abramovich (Chelsea)

18/1 Al Fayed (Fulham)

18/1 Gudmundsson (West Ham)

20/1 Alisher Usmanov (Arsenal)

25/1 Walker Trusties (Blackburn)

25/1 Mike Ashley (Newcastle)

25/1 Bill Kenwright (Everton)

25/1 Randy Lerner (Aston Villa)

25/1 Alexandre Gaydamak (Portsmouth)

25/1 Drumaville Consortium (Sunderland)

28/1 David Whelan (Wigan)

28/1 Steve Gibson (Boro)

Pod’s bets go down the toilet due to a couple of late goals.  The whole bet was a little stupid anyway.  Most he could have won was about £850 from his £350 and that was if all of the came in.  He should have had a accumulator on the 3 results rather than a patent.  I think patent bets are only worth while if the odds are 4/1 or greater.  As they were all Asian Handicaps, he needed all 3 to win to make any decent profit. 

Anyway, going to try a bit of spread betting next season.  I figure that football spead betting will be more profitable as when we lose, we don’t lose by much.  Thats the plan anyway.  It’ll be something for next season as funny things happen toward the end of the season and with spread betting, you can win big but also lose big. 

No bets this weekend for the syndicate.  Gone bust. 

No bets for me either.  Last weekend was devastating and Chelsea conceding in the 92nd has summed up my month.  This weeks fixtures are pretty hard to predict anyway. 

 Pods had a £50 patent on Wolves, Cardiff and Leeds on the Asian Handicap.  With his current form it’ll come in.  (A Patent consists of 7 bets involving 3 selections in different events, ie. 3 singles, 3 doubles, and 1 Treble.), £350 staked. 

After the terrible Saturday, I forgot about a four fold I stuck on midweek.  I was looking at the fixture list and picked out, Man U, Liverpool, Chelsea and Villa as bankers and stuck them in a 4 fold multiple.  I got 5.73 for that, £50.  I figured that the rest of the fixtures were too tricky and would be best left alone.  I really should not have bet on any other matches. 

10.Apr 2008 21:53	22/22	50.00	W	Accum	Liverpool v Blackburn : Match Betting	Liverpool	1.53	Won	Open	50.00
					Man United v Arsenal : Match Betting	Man United	1.91	Won
					Chelsea v Wigan : Match Betting	Chelsea	1.25	Open
					Derby v Aston Villa : Match Betting	Aston Villa	1.57	Won

Fingers cross.  If this comes in, I’ll regard this weekend as a ’stinker’ rather than a ‘fatal body blow’. 

Another early end of the month.  Todays bets were Mk Dons and Cardiff, double.  MK dons draw 2-2.  Lost £100.  Next bet was West Brom single, £82.  Lost.  Bank down to -£400 and its game over. 

Personal bets have gone worse.  Heavy losses this month.  Had, West Brom, West Brom overs, Reading, Sunderland, Hull, Spuds overs, Abderdeen, all seemingly good bets but none won.  All level stakes at £50.  Ouch. 

Don’t know whats happening.  Don’t seem to be able to pick any winners at all.  We’ll be back next month. 

Pomey win 1-0.  Sheff U draw 2-2 after being 2-0 down.  No good for the betting.  Both bets lose.  Bank down to -£218.  Could be another short month this. 

Classic at Anfield last night.  Some crazy odds landed in running according to the betfair blog  I was doing some trading.  Had the draw when Liverpool were 2-1 up.  I was going to get out when Arsenal equalised but the penalty for Liverpool happened before the market settled and I didn’t get out in time. 

Liverpool were matched at a high of [8.0] in-running on Betfair to win a rollercoaster quarter-final against Arsenal tonight.

Arsene Wenger’s team touched [1.2] to qualify after seemingly taking a decisive away goal advantage with an Emmanuel Adebayor strike in the 85th minute.

But a Steven Gerrard equaliser from the penalty spot just a minute later denied Betfair customers taking the short price.

The eventual 4-2 scoreline landed in-running bets of [110.0] on the correct score market while over 4.5 goals was matched at [34.0] on the exchange.

Cardiff win 1-0.  Pretty lucky though, Odejayi missed a sitter for Barnsley.  Bank to -£18 now.  Looking better. 

Champions League, is tricky.  Dodging Liverpool/ Arsenal at all costs.  Is on ITV so should be a good one to watch at home.  Chelsea should win but it wouldn’t surprise me if Fenebahce sneaked a draw.  Man U and Barca don’t need to win so the usually good odds aren’t actually that good. 

West Ham to beat Pompey looks a good bet.  Pompey played at the weekend, whereas West Ham didn’t.  Don’t know how bothered Pompy can be at this stage of the season.  Unlikely to catch Everton, they’ll get UEFA Cup action next year with winning the FA Cup.  2.08 -0.25 on the Asian Handicap is a good price.  £100 staked. 

Other bet has writing all over the wall. 

Bet Slip - Thank You and Good Luck!

Selection	Event	Odds	Stake	To Win	Confirmation	Time GMT +01:00
Sheffield United	SHEFFIELD UNITED V SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY	Asian Handicap (-0.5) @ £2.05	100.00	105.00		10:18 PM
This Transaction:			100.00	105.00		07/04/2008